dawn of a new age, perhaps?

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So recently, here in Hanoi, there has been an implementation of temporary new regulations. All nightlife must end by 11 PM, certain roads are blocked off, an extremely high number of men in murky green or pale beige uniforms dominate street corners, and the disappearance of street vendors are widespread. What makes my mind boggle, well not exactly boggle, but twist and turn a little bit is how Vietnam can transform the way the society is shaped so quickly and effectively for such a short amount of time. By the 19th of this month, all will be back to normal. The nightlife will no longer end at 11, but rather one or so. The blocked roads will be opened to pedestrians and those on vehicles. The amount of men in ugly coloured uniforms will subside, and there will be a reemergence of street vendors.

Currently, the APEC Conference is underway here in Hanoi with many officials from various countries taking part in the event. Even George Bush is here in Hanoi. Being an American somewhat makes me want to meet him, but in any other situation, this feeling would definitely not linger within me. APEC, or Asian-Pacific Economic Cooperation, deals with the economic developments, trade relations and facilitation, and other issues such as anti-corruption/anti-terrorism between countries in the Asian-Pacific area as well as other nations. The topics discussed within the APEC conference effects Vietnam substantially. What types of outcomes that result in such topics of economic development, commerce, finance, tourism, and business being discussed will reflect Vietnam’s economic future. What policies will be passed, agreements with other nations, and internally, what Vietnam must do to uphold these agreements affect the future. One important factor being discussed within this conference are WTO negotiations with Vietnam and the other 149 members.

Wow, Vietnam in the WTO. The question that lingers here on news television channels, in classrooms, and between friends is “Will positive or negative consequences fruit from the induction of Vietnam as the 150th member of the WTO?” Of course, there is no black and white answer to any question, and there must not be for this one. Joining the WTO will open markets, allow new products to stream into Vietnam and the countries products to be exported, provide new jobs, and increase foreign investment and economic activity. It seems as if Vietnam is at the dawn of a new age. From here on out, Vietnam will develop and flourish so fast that within a blink of an eye, the Vietnam of today will no longer be here tomorrow! Not necessarily. Yes, the country will indeed develop extremely fast and become a tiger within Asia, but magnifying into the micro-issues or the internal issues that persist with the induction into the WTO, there exists problems. A high percentage of workers in Vietnam belong to the rural sector: farming in particular. From what I can recall, 80% of the population of Vietnam fall under this category. Officially on the 7th of November of this year, Vietnam became the 150th member of the World Trade Organization. With that established, there now only needs to be policies, new laws to be drafted, and agreements on certain economic trade relations between Vietnam and each of the other 149 countries who are part of the WTO. So with these negotiations and agreements, Vietnam’s markets will inevitably be open to a large amount of nations. It really all depends on what type of agreements are made which effect the high percentage of rural workers here in Vietnam. For example, farm products-fruit, vegetables, crops, etc. will not be able to be imported from other countries, China, U.S.A, etc. at a low price, leaving products from farmers within Vietnam to sit, unpurchased. New competition has its pluses and its downfalls, but in the context of such workers here in Vietnam, the forecast seems grey.

As for vendors on the street, selling goods ranging from books to socks, new businesses such as Wal-mart can possibly drive them to destruction. According to a guest speaker yesterday in my Vietnamese Politics class, Wal-mart is due in Vietnam in 2009, in just three years. Fruit vendors, clothing vendors, and any vendor for that matter will face a multiplied amount of hardships than they already do now. Struggling to survive now seems like a better situation than gasping for air in the future. Vietnam into the WTO does in fact have positive macro outcomes. In the future, Vietnam will indeed be a more developed nation, but such micro problems as poverty and lack of opportunity for the lower class will remain.

There has been debate over this idea of growth and poverty. Dollar and Kraay, who argue with growth, the level of poverty will subside. They point towards the development of a nation, economically, and how it has progressed by great lengths. They relate a country’s increasing GDP with the decreasing poverty level. On the other side of the fence stands Oxfam, who refutes this argument by pointing to this idea of equity. A nation can still advance, but the poor and poverty level will remain the same, or in fact increase unless there is equity. Equity for the poor side by side with growth of the nation will allow a country to progress further and bring the gap between rich and poor closer together. But such arguments are merely theories of certain individuals. But nonetheless, such ideas breed discussion over such controversial topics such as these. In placing these ideas onto Vietnam’s current situation–joining the WTO–a prediction of the future can be made. It is not in question whether or not Vietnam will develop. It is obvious that it will. Economically, Vietnam will become stronger than it is today. So growth in Vietnam will happen. But the question that remains is, “will this growth be good for the poor or not”? From my point of view, I agree with Oxfam’s arguments of equity being a crucial factor in growth being positive for the poor. As he states, “the larger the share of any increment to growth captured by the poor, the faster the rate of poverty reduction”. This idea of growth alone being good for the poor assumes that the income of the poor is parallel with the overall growth of the country and that there is no inequity between growth and poor-income households. This assumption also looks past micro-economic issues, and only focuses on the macro. It always seems to be the case for me to focus on micro-scale issues of the economy in these types of situations. I am in fact quite anticipating the future of Vietnam and what it will be like as a nation within the years to come. In essence, there is no resolution to what I feel; it is a mixed feeling.

Until next time.

Tran, Quy-Hac.

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